The rise in international commodity prices following the 2008 global financial crisis sparked a
gold stampede in the Brazilian economy, particularly in the Amazon region, one of the main goldrich
zones in the country, making both legal and illicit mining a highly profitable and alluring
business. It is believed that the increased illicit mining of gold has exacerbated violence in areas
with abundant metals, becoming a new driving force in Brazilian conflicts. In this context, the
present thesis is a preliminary investigation of the relationship between mining and conflict
through an extensive microeconomic literature review and descriptive statistics on the gold surge's
correlation and four different measures of violence, including homicide rate, firearm death rate,
violent causalities, and aggregated rural violence. An entirely new dataset is created for Brazilian
municipalities located in the Legal Amazon to determine those which are exposed to illegal
mining and how they are affected by violence. To circumvent the paucity of data on illicit
mining in Brazil, we use the location of protected areas, such as Indigenous Territories and
Natural Conservation Areas, and deforestation rates as instruments to determine municipalities
exposed to illegal mining. In protected areas, no mining of any kind is allowed, meaning that all
mining activities in municipalities with these characteristics are illegal. We conclude by
demonstrating that the municipalities exposed to illegal mining present 13.8% more incidences of homicide
rate than municipalities exposed to legal mining and 63% more than municipalities not exposed to mining
and that the violence indicators seem to be correlated with the international gold price.
Anotace v angličtině
The rise in international commodity prices following the 2008 global financial crisis sparked a
gold stampede in the Brazilian economy, particularly in the Amazon region, one of the main goldrich
zones in the country, making both legal and illicit mining a highly profitable and alluring
business. It is believed that the increased illicit mining of gold has exacerbated violence in areas
with abundant metals, becoming a new driving force in Brazilian conflicts. In this context, the
present thesis is a preliminary investigation of the relationship between mining and conflict
through an extensive microeconomic literature review and descriptive statistics on the gold surge's
correlation and four different measures of violence, including homicide rate, firearm death rate,
violent causalities, and aggregated rural violence. An entirely new dataset is created for Brazilian
municipalities located in the Legal Amazon to determine those which are exposed to illegal
mining and how they are affected by violence. To circumvent the paucity of data on illicit
mining in Brazil, we use the location of protected areas, such as Indigenous Territories and
Natural Conservation Areas, and deforestation rates as instruments to determine municipalities
exposed to illegal mining. In protected areas, no mining of any kind is allowed, meaning that all
mining activities in municipalities with these characteristics are illegal. We conclude by
demonstrating that the municipalities exposed to illegal mining present 13.8% more incidences of homicide
rate than municipalities exposed to legal mining and 63% more than municipalities not exposed to mining
and that the violence indicators seem to be correlated with the international gold price.
The rise in international commodity prices following the 2008 global financial crisis sparked a
gold stampede in the Brazilian economy, particularly in the Amazon region, one of the main goldrich
zones in the country, making both legal and illicit mining a highly profitable and alluring
business. It is believed that the increased illicit mining of gold has exacerbated violence in areas
with abundant metals, becoming a new driving force in Brazilian conflicts. In this context, the
present thesis is a preliminary investigation of the relationship between mining and conflict
through an extensive microeconomic literature review and descriptive statistics on the gold surge's
correlation and four different measures of violence, including homicide rate, firearm death rate,
violent causalities, and aggregated rural violence. An entirely new dataset is created for Brazilian
municipalities located in the Legal Amazon to determine those which are exposed to illegal
mining and how they are affected by violence. To circumvent the paucity of data on illicit
mining in Brazil, we use the location of protected areas, such as Indigenous Territories and
Natural Conservation Areas, and deforestation rates as instruments to determine municipalities
exposed to illegal mining. In protected areas, no mining of any kind is allowed, meaning that all
mining activities in municipalities with these characteristics are illegal. We conclude by
demonstrating that the municipalities exposed to illegal mining present 13.8% more incidences of homicide
rate than municipalities exposed to legal mining and 63% more than municipalities not exposed to mining
and that the violence indicators seem to be correlated with the international gold price.
Anotace v angličtině
The rise in international commodity prices following the 2008 global financial crisis sparked a
gold stampede in the Brazilian economy, particularly in the Amazon region, one of the main goldrich
zones in the country, making both legal and illicit mining a highly profitable and alluring
business. It is believed that the increased illicit mining of gold has exacerbated violence in areas
with abundant metals, becoming a new driving force in Brazilian conflicts. In this context, the
present thesis is a preliminary investigation of the relationship between mining and conflict
through an extensive microeconomic literature review and descriptive statistics on the gold surge's
correlation and four different measures of violence, including homicide rate, firearm death rate,
violent causalities, and aggregated rural violence. An entirely new dataset is created for Brazilian
municipalities located in the Legal Amazon to determine those which are exposed to illegal
mining and how they are affected by violence. To circumvent the paucity of data on illicit
mining in Brazil, we use the location of protected areas, such as Indigenous Territories and
Natural Conservation Areas, and deforestation rates as instruments to determine municipalities
exposed to illegal mining. In protected areas, no mining of any kind is allowed, meaning that all
mining activities in municipalities with these characteristics are illegal. We conclude by
demonstrating that the municipalities exposed to illegal mining present 13.8% more incidences of homicide
rate than municipalities exposed to legal mining and 63% more than municipalities not exposed to mining
and that the violence indicators seem to be correlated with the international gold price.
Brazil is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change: extreme temperatures, rising seas, heavy rainfall and droughts are already a reality in the country (UNDP, 2020), increasing demand and decreasing surface water availability (Hirata; Conicelli, 2012) as well as shortages in food production (Jelani, 2017). The environmental degradation, according to the neo-malthusian theory, combined with a rapid population growth is likely to lead to extreme levels of hunger and widespread violent conflict (Erlich, 1968; Kaplan, 1994). In this context, the present research seeks to contribute to the body of subnational empirical studies by analyzing the relationship between weather shocks and conflict incidence in Brazil, taking into account mining companies activities. In order to do that, the research will use quantitative data available by public and private sources to measure incidence of conflict, weather shocks and presence of mining industry activities. From the best of our knowledge, there is no dataset available yet that brings together weather shocks, conflict and mining activities in Brazil yet and building the dataset itself will be an important contribution to the field. Apart from that, we expect to contribute with descriptive statistics on the subject.
Zásady pro vypracování
Brazil is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change: extreme temperatures, rising seas, heavy rainfall and droughts are already a reality in the country (UNDP, 2020), increasing demand and decreasing surface water availability (Hirata; Conicelli, 2012) as well as shortages in food production (Jelani, 2017). The environmental degradation, according to the neo-malthusian theory, combined with a rapid population growth is likely to lead to extreme levels of hunger and widespread violent conflict (Erlich, 1968; Kaplan, 1994). In this context, the present research seeks to contribute to the body of subnational empirical studies by analyzing the relationship between weather shocks and conflict incidence in Brazil, taking into account mining companies activities. In order to do that, the research will use quantitative data available by public and private sources to measure incidence of conflict, weather shocks and presence of mining industry activities. From the best of our knowledge, there is no dataset available yet that brings together weather shocks, conflict and mining activities in Brazil yet and building the dataset itself will be an important contribution to the field. Apart from that, we expect to contribute with descriptive statistics on the subject.
Catharina presented the summary and the research´s main objective of her Thesis, The impact of climate change on conflicts in Brazil, at the beginning of presentation. She continued with the introduction of the Methodology (dataset) and content. The last slides were focused on the final remarks and conclusion. Reading of both reviews – from the supervisor and review follows in this Thesis Defence. Ms. Becker Missel Machado commented on some questions and notes from reviews and the members of the Committee in the final part of the Thesis Defence. For example, How far could the econometric framework of Idrobo et. al. 2014 be implemented? Are the data collected suitable for econometric analysis? What would have been the unit of observation? If yes, is it possible to define the structure of this econometric model? How has it been estimated? Etc.