The thesis investigates external debt sustainability in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova on the basis of variables associated with the foreign economic activity of these countries. After discussing the current problems and vulnerabilities of countries related to the current account deficit and debt structure, sustainability zones are estimated in based on GDS. Based on that, as of 2017, all 4 countries met sustainability criteria. However, the results of the ADF test demonstrated the opposite, having established that all countries except Moldova did not achieve debt sustainability. The outcomes of accounting method did not show sufficient evidences of sustainability of current account balances in 4 countries.
Annotation in English
The thesis investigates external debt sustainability in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova on the basis of variables associated with the foreign economic activity of these countries. After discussing the current problems and vulnerabilities of countries related to the current account deficit and debt structure, sustainability zones are estimated in based on GDS. Based on that, as of 2017, all 4 countries met sustainability criteria. However, the results of the ADF test demonstrated the opposite, having established that all countries except Moldova did not achieve debt sustainability. The outcomes of accounting method did not show sufficient evidences of sustainability of current account balances in 4 countries.
Keywords
-
Keywords in English
-
Length of the covering note
50
Language
AN
Annotation
The thesis investigates external debt sustainability in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova on the basis of variables associated with the foreign economic activity of these countries. After discussing the current problems and vulnerabilities of countries related to the current account deficit and debt structure, sustainability zones are estimated in based on GDS. Based on that, as of 2017, all 4 countries met sustainability criteria. However, the results of the ADF test demonstrated the opposite, having established that all countries except Moldova did not achieve debt sustainability. The outcomes of accounting method did not show sufficient evidences of sustainability of current account balances in 4 countries.
Annotation in English
The thesis investigates external debt sustainability in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova on the basis of variables associated with the foreign economic activity of these countries. After discussing the current problems and vulnerabilities of countries related to the current account deficit and debt structure, sustainability zones are estimated in based on GDS. Based on that, as of 2017, all 4 countries met sustainability criteria. However, the results of the ADF test demonstrated the opposite, having established that all countries except Moldova did not achieve debt sustainability. The outcomes of accounting method did not show sufficient evidences of sustainability of current account balances in 4 countries.
Keywords
-
Keywords in English
-
Research Plan
Most of the former Soviet Union countries have been experiencing low trade performance with permanent current account deficits since declaration of their independence. This condition forces them to rely on external sources to finance their savings & investment gap and trade deficit.
The objective of the research is to assess the external debt sustainability of highly indebted 6 Commonwealth of Independent States countries (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova) over the period 2000-2018 and to explore the relationship between external debt, current account balance, interest and GDP growth rates using Panel data econometrics. The study also tests the impact of financial flows such as remittances and FDI to achieve debt sustainability. The development of sustainability criteria is based on a rule of improvement of current account balance and achievement of economic growth at the level, which enables to sustain in existing debt levels in steady-state equilibrium.
Research Plan
Most of the former Soviet Union countries have been experiencing low trade performance with permanent current account deficits since declaration of their independence. This condition forces them to rely on external sources to finance their savings & investment gap and trade deficit.
The objective of the research is to assess the external debt sustainability of highly indebted 6 Commonwealth of Independent States countries (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova) over the period 2000-2018 and to explore the relationship between external debt, current account balance, interest and GDP growth rates using Panel data econometrics. The study also tests the impact of financial flows such as remittances and FDI to achieve debt sustainability. The development of sustainability criteria is based on a rule of improvement of current account balance and achievement of economic growth at the level, which enables to sustain in existing debt levels in steady-state equilibrium.
Recommended resources
Vaggi, G. and Prizzon, A. 2013. "On the sustainability of external debt: is debt relief enough?", Oxford University Press.
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., and Nguyen, T. Q. 2005. "Can Debt Relief Boost Growth in Poor Countries?" IMF Working Paper.
Geithner, T. 2002. "Assessing Sustainabilty". International Monetary Fund Working paper.
Obstfeld, M. 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?". University of California, Berkeley.
Recommended resources
Vaggi, G. and Prizzon, A. 2013. "On the sustainability of external debt: is debt relief enough?", Oxford University Press.
Reinhart, Carmen M. and Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., and Nguyen, T. Q. 2005. "Can Debt Relief Boost Growth in Poor Countries?" IMF Working Paper.
Geithner, T. 2002. "Assessing Sustainabilty". International Monetary Fund Working paper.
Obstfeld, M. 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?". University of California, Berkeley.
Enclosed appendices
-
Appendices bound in thesis
graphs, tables
Taken from the library
Yes
Full text of the thesis
Appendices
Reviewer's report
Supervisor's report
Defence procedure record
Student presented the results of the diploma thesis - A comparative study of external debt sustainability in highly indebted CIS member states. Student talked about the composition of CA balance, GDP, dept, exchange rate of USD of chosen states (Moldova, Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, and Armenia).
Committee was familiarized with both reviews from supervisor and reviewer.
Discussion followed - student focused on these issues - the main differences in term of debt sustainability among four countries examined and methodology of his thesis, special case of Moldova.