In a changing natural environment, rural households adapt to increased risk in several ways. Sending one or more household members to a far off usually urban location is an adaptation strategy used in numerous developing countries across the world. The study analyses the extent of rural migration occurring due to climate change in Pakistan and examines how the migration patterns differ across genders. The study creates a unique longitudinal panel using the out-migration module of a nationally representative survey i.e. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and finds that there is a significant and positive association between changing weather and migration out of rural areas. Moreover, this relationship is significant for both drought and floods where the probability to migrate across a longer time is higher for middle drought, heavy flood, and very heavy flood. The relationship between migration due to climate change and gender is also significant and the probability of females to migrate out of rural areas due to climatic shocks is high.
Anotace v angličtině
In a changing natural environment, rural households adapt to increased risk in several ways. Sending one or more household members to a far off usually urban location is an adaptation strategy used in numerous developing countries across the world. The study analyses the extent of rural migration occurring due to climate change in Pakistan and examines how the migration patterns differ across genders. The study creates a unique longitudinal panel using the out-migration module of a nationally representative survey i.e. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and finds that there is a significant and positive association between changing weather and migration out of rural areas. Moreover, this relationship is significant for both drought and floods where the probability to migrate across a longer time is higher for middle drought, heavy flood, and very heavy flood. The relationship between migration due to climate change and gender is also significant and the probability of females to migrate out of rural areas due to climatic shocks is high.
In a changing natural environment, rural households adapt to increased risk in several ways. Sending one or more household members to a far off usually urban location is an adaptation strategy used in numerous developing countries across the world. The study analyses the extent of rural migration occurring due to climate change in Pakistan and examines how the migration patterns differ across genders. The study creates a unique longitudinal panel using the out-migration module of a nationally representative survey i.e. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and finds that there is a significant and positive association between changing weather and migration out of rural areas. Moreover, this relationship is significant for both drought and floods where the probability to migrate across a longer time is higher for middle drought, heavy flood, and very heavy flood. The relationship between migration due to climate change and gender is also significant and the probability of females to migrate out of rural areas due to climatic shocks is high.
Anotace v angličtině
In a changing natural environment, rural households adapt to increased risk in several ways. Sending one or more household members to a far off usually urban location is an adaptation strategy used in numerous developing countries across the world. The study analyses the extent of rural migration occurring due to climate change in Pakistan and examines how the migration patterns differ across genders. The study creates a unique longitudinal panel using the out-migration module of a nationally representative survey i.e. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and finds that there is a significant and positive association between changing weather and migration out of rural areas. Moreover, this relationship is significant for both drought and floods where the probability to migrate across a longer time is higher for middle drought, heavy flood, and very heavy flood. The relationship between migration due to climate change and gender is also significant and the probability of females to migrate out of rural areas due to climatic shocks is high.
This study intends to investigate the relationship between the changing weather patterns of erratic rainfalls and extreme heat stress on internal migration of rural households through channels of loss in farm output, stock value, and assets. Using the link between asset ownership and migration it would reflect on the various coping strategies available to individuals of various social classes in rural areas of Pakistan. The study intends to use the Pakistan Panel Household Survey which is a longitudinal survey conducted in 16 rural and peri-urban districts of Pakistan in 2001, 2004 and 2010.
Zásady pro vypracování
This study intends to investigate the relationship between the changing weather patterns of erratic rainfalls and extreme heat stress on internal migration of rural households through channels of loss in farm output, stock value, and assets. Using the link between asset ownership and migration it would reflect on the various coping strategies available to individuals of various social classes in rural areas of Pakistan. The study intends to use the Pakistan Panel Household Survey which is a longitudinal survey conducted in 16 rural and peri-urban districts of Pakistan in 2001, 2004 and 2010.
Seznam doporučené literatury
1.Abid, M., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U.A. and Ashfaq, M., 2015. Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics, 6(1), pp.225-243.
2.Auffhammer, M., Hsiang, S.M., Schlenker, W. and Sobel, A., 2013. Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 7(2), pp.181-198.
3.Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M. and Hsiang, S.M., 2014. Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(27), pp.9780-9785.
4.Brown, O., 2007. Climate change and forced migration: observations, projections and implications (No. HDOCPA-2007-17). Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
5.Change, I.C., 2007. Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental panel on climate change.
6.Durr-e-Nayab and Arif, G.M., 2012. Pakistan Panel Household Survey Sample Size, Attrition and Socio-demographic Dynamics. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
7.Findley, S.E., 1994. Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983-1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3), pp.539-553.
8.Homer-Dixon, T.F., 1994. Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: evidence from cases. International security, 19(1), pp.5-40.
9.Mearns, R. and Norton, A. eds., 2009. The social dimensions of climate change: equity and vulnerability in a warming world. The World Bank.
10.Mueller, V., Gray, C. and Kosec, K., 2014. Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature climate change, 4(3), p.182
Seznam doporučené literatury
1.Abid, M., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U.A. and Ashfaq, M., 2015. Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics, 6(1), pp.225-243.
2.Auffhammer, M., Hsiang, S.M., Schlenker, W. and Sobel, A., 2013. Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 7(2), pp.181-198.
3.Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M. and Hsiang, S.M., 2014. Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(27), pp.9780-9785.
4.Brown, O., 2007. Climate change and forced migration: observations, projections and implications (No. HDOCPA-2007-17). Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
5.Change, I.C., 2007. Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental panel on climate change.
6.Durr-e-Nayab and Arif, G.M., 2012. Pakistan Panel Household Survey Sample Size, Attrition and Socio-demographic Dynamics. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
7.Findley, S.E., 1994. Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983-1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3), pp.539-553.
8.Homer-Dixon, T.F., 1994. Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: evidence from cases. International security, 19(1), pp.5-40.
9.Mearns, R. and Norton, A. eds., 2009. The social dimensions of climate change: equity and vulnerability in a warming world. The World Bank.
10.Mueller, V., Gray, C. and Kosec, K., 2014. Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature climate change, 4(3), p.182
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Shifa Fatimah presented results of the diploma thesis - Climate Change and Internal Migration Patterns: A case study of rural Pakistan. Shifa Fatimah described the research gap, research questions and study variables. Then she continued with the presentation of methodology and SPEI classification. Committee was familiarized with both reviews from supervisor and reviewer. Discussion followed - student answered the questions related to the selected variables for the analysis (interaction of gender variable to the weather conditions), and then the student clarified the wealth index. Shifa also clearly explained the role of ethnicity on migration in Pakistan.