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Lecturer(s)
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Nováček Pavel, doc. RNDr. CSc.
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Course content
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Students will be presented basic terminology, history of prognostication and chosen methods of future development opportunities researches and threats (delph method, brainstorming, trend extrapolation, scenario writing). Will be lead discussion over world prognostic reports (Roman club reports, Millennium Project, etc.) especially with reference to development perspective of developing countries.
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Learning activities and teaching methods
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Lecture, Dialogic Lecture (Discussion, Dialog, Brainstorming), Work with Text (with Book, Textbook)
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Learning outcomes
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The main aim of the subject is to introduce students to the basic concepts of futures studies (prognostic).
Upon completion of the subjects students should be able to create and analyze alternative scenarios of future development, in particular in the development countries.
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Prerequisites
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unspecified
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Assessment methods and criteria
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Written exam, Seminar Work
For succesful completion of the course, students are required to complete an exam covering the course material.
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Recommended literature
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Glenn, J., Gordon, T., eds. (2007). State of the Future. The Millennium Project. Washington, D.C.
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Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. (1992). Beyond the Limits.
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Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. (1992). The Limits to Growth. New York.
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Nováček, P. (1999). Křižovatky budoucnosti. Směřování k udržitelnému rozvoji a globálnímu řízení. Praha.
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Petrášek, F. (2009). Futurologická studia. Praha.
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Potůček, M. a kol. (2006). Manuál prognostických metod. Praha.
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Šulc, O. (1987). Prognostika od A do Z. Praha.
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Thorhaug, A. et al. (2011). Future of the Western Hemisphere. Miami.
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Toffler, A. (1980). The Third Wave. New York.
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Toffler, A., Toffler, H. (2001). Vytváření nové civilizace. Třetí vlna a její důsledky. Praha.
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